2014 Withdrawal - Fear Factor/ Chaos Theory
Elders have said ‘as you sow, so shall you reap’; changes in the global scenario are swift but the human mind has only this much capacity to assimilate from all things that are happening around him; just like each time the earth has traversed ~40,000km around its axis, man says just another day has passed.
Likewise as man slumbers in his immediate calm, great waves of change are altering the course of the global scenario all the time, but man reckons them only when they have reached the threshold of his door. The Afghans, hardened by the terrain and cut off from modernity, would have had no clue, what fate was being planned for them in the think-tanks of the West, as they wrote their plan, prior 9/11, to occupy and devour this unalarmed people in the name of a un-called-for democracy. Nor would they be apprehensive of the possibility that India, having no connection with them via ground or water or culture, was to become their self-assumed savior, landing its troops, its intelligence and its technical funds on their ground.
But are the so-called Superpowers, aided with elaborate think-tanks and those who boast of their civility and culture pre-cautioned with what awaits for them in the near future, do things go on according to what they had planned? The truth is that the surges of change in the global scenarios carry manifolds of immeasurable aspects in their flux, many of which may not even have been identified as yet. Therefore as things unfold to the bare human eye, most of the time the most civilized and composed are the ones left in the deepest astoundment.
All wars are started with strategies to win and are lost because those strategies were faulty; plans are made for moving-in but there are seldom any plans for moving-out. If the aspects that would lead to failure were determinable aforehand, they would have been countered, thus failure would not have happened in the first place; but circumstances, evolving in time, most of the time prove unpredictable and counter-planning.
Therefore with a full decade behind them and not a single parameter which measures in success, the US/NATO and their partner-in-crime India are indeed showing all signs of bafflement and fear in their act of retreat. It is fear that forces one to act irrationally and it is fear that one hides under his erratic and incoherent behavior.
India in more on the hit-and–trial version, it has shown in time that its foreign policy is not based on long-term stability measures, confidence building or conflict resolution, like an aiming-to-be regional power, one sober with prudence and abreast with secular diplomacy, should be behaving. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka; India poses to have great ties with each of them once they are ready to its intervention in their internal politics and foreign policy, otherwise ‘big-brother’ India is unhappy.
In the aftermaths of the 1971 war, when India had successfully launched its military and political intervention in Bangladesh, it also occupied two areas of Bangladesh, Padua, part of Sylhet Division and the South Talpatti Island, which it is keeping to this day. India has occupied Kalapani a river source area belonging to Nepal, since its 1962 China war and another of its territory by the name Susta. India has occupied the Narcondam islands belonging to Burma. India lays claim on Kachativu Island belonging to Sri Lanka. India disputes with China over major areas of Aksai Chin, the Trans-Karakoram Track, Arunachal Pradesh and the Depsang Plains and it disputes over the Sir Creek, the Siachin Glacier, the Saltoro Mountains and the state of Kashmir with Pakistan.
Moreover India has border tensions with most of its neighbors on migrant-crossing and terror-outfit-harboring; most of the time separatist groups of India take hiding in the closest neighbor, bringing terror on both sides. Tamil separatists are one example that has raged havoc in Sri Lanka for decades. Most of the smaller neighbors to its east consider India to be playing ‘big brother’ over them and comply in most matters due to shortcomings. Bhutan and India have a Treaty of wherein Bhutan agrees to let India “guide” its foreign policy and that both nations would consult each other closely on foreign and defense affairs. Therefore it can be clearly seen that India harbors an interventional, hegemonic foreign policy as opposed to an internal, progressive, secular policy it boasts of.
With such a political mindset, when a most poorest and over-populace country is not concerned with the welfare of its people but feeds at the extremist Hinduvta policy of a greater India, when it was already greater than easily manageable, makes India stand on slippery grounds. This we see when we find an India having grave matters of mal-nutrition, under-growth and acute poverty in its wider population, yet it jumps across another country to become an acclaimed largest humanitarian aid provider to Afghanistan. What is the need for that? What is the need for playing regional, when dozens of separatist’s movements are lurching upon its fate inside it. It is evident that the lofty Hinduvta mentality likes to play on a grander chess-board, a trans-borders one, but the irony is that in this big-game, human rights, human society and even the very human existence is forsaken, populations are given into the hands of terror and genocide is permitted.
But the dilemma of this type of approach is that many a time when the game is inverted the rooks and the bishops all become falling pawns and the king is left alone, tumbling in its square. And tumbling is what India has shown, right from the onset of the 2014 withdrawal plan announcement. The very confident India, of its grand strategy of engulfing Afghanistan by its connivance under the US umbrella of ‘no-morals-only-interests’, that one day when the US will return the Afghans would proclaim them as their saviors. But no! India wasn’t thinking that the US was going to leave them alone on the throne, with no NATO and only the Afghans around, they would be torn to the bones before it was noon, and no one would even get the news from this remote highland of the world.
So the Indians began shaking; not finding any option that would spare them the disgrace of absconding Afghanistan, where they previously declared to be aiding humanity and building infra-structure, an aid that never reached a people and infrastructure that is still on papers after 10 years. Absconding from Afghanistan, the so-called burial place of empires is a matter of shame in the international community indeed, and India seems to have resorted to the Chaos Theory as its last resort. The Chaos Theory tells us that an extremely minor or even immeasurable difference in the history of two events can lead to highly variant paths in their future; it also tells us that apparent chaos or abrupt happenings in the present time must be part of some ordered sequence from the past, only the sequence has not yet been defined. Therefore the proponents of chaos theory tend to find sequences in chaotic happenings and aim to use chaos as a catalytic approach to achieve an end.
So, when you observe increase of bombing and massacre of innocent Pakistani civilians, claimed by LeJ and TTP or any other ghostly entity, trained, financed and harbored by the cross border RAW facilities, dressed as Indian consulates; do consider that ‘somebody’ is believing that some ‘end’ may be speedily achieved through this chaos, no matter if human life is lost or people put to injury and terror.
And when you observe enhanced cross-fires and unprovoked intrusions from the Indian side and Pakistani officials trying their hardest to pacify the situation and the Aman Ki Asha playing its usual flute of love, and its delegation to India being utterly disgraced and the Indian PM Manmohan Singh saying ‘it cannot be business as usual’; then just try to scent ‘India Chauvinism’ in the air, that believes in abrupt arousal of schism to cash upon the opponent’s assumed inferiority.
And when you see a Pakistan furthering its inclinations towards granting the MFN status to India, allowing a long list of Indian produce to enter Pakistan and an India announcing to build dozens of dams upon its water source; and a Pakistan cherishing all Indian film and TV crap as the very gods of culture and lending a third of its air-time to it and an India plotting and executing large scale death in all it province, with special emphasis to destabilizing Baluchistan with a daily dose of chaos; then please consider that schizophrenia can be a national ailment too.
But the real fear-factor is exposed in the Kashmir scenario, when the apprehensions upon the 2014 withdrawal, cast fear of unpredictable outcomes of the chaos it has been inciting for years, into the spines of India. Where will the terrorist it has been abetting for terrorizing Pakistan go when the two brotherly nations of Pak and Afghan would have secured their borders? What if Pakistan is able to divert them towards the Kashmir Jehad. What if those terrorist are captured and they declare their connection with the RAW and the likes. And the rising intifada among the Kashmiri youth, their persistent presence in the streets and the social media, serves as a constant cause of panic for India’s shaking feet in Kashmir. So what is the right way to act for India: chaos! Out of the blue one day, India announces that it has hanged Afzal Guru, inciting widespread protest and anxiety among the Kashmiris; India takes this as a false flag to tighten its clutches upon the civil life of Kashmir; some say it was an election stunt: does election of the democratic republic of India sell on presenting human sacrifice to the gods of the vote-bank; are these democratic values? No, but surely the underlying rule here is ‘more the chaos, more the good will be brought to India’.
So as India shivers in its own unfulfilled greed for hegemony, and as its prospects dwindle in its projected economy, its own national stability and its possible grab of more land and water; not only are its dreams of out-growth shattered, but neighbors like China have good plans to contain India inside its real worth too, as China turns India’s attention to the waters above its head and below its feet.