Russia/Turkey/Iran & Syria Deal
Russia/Turkey/Iran to divide Syria into zones of influence.
The same Balkanization US was being accused of?
According to the deal Syria would be divided into zones of regional power influence & Assad would be president till next elections, then he will nominate another Alawite.
If the deal is on, next talks will be in mid-Jan in Astana, Kazakhstan, a close Russian ally.
So Erdogan will compromise with Assad’s staying a few more years, while Iran will compromise by letting him go after that. In return, Turkey will get influence in the north & elimination of the Kurd PKK party & Iran would get a zone of influence along the western borders of Iraq.
After a nationwide ceasefire, zones will be established, then Gulf states, US & later EU may be given bids in rebuilding.
So what does all this mean…
This means that Syria will be Balkanized, just like mandates given after WW1 & as for Iraq, it will totally be in Iran’s pocket! Turkey may get control over the whole Kurdish north, which has been a threat for it, as their possible autonomy would lead to the same in Turkish Kurdistan.
So will that be a stable position or ensure long-lasting peace – that is doubtful! Because complete control of Shias on 50%Sunni country, who have constantly been crushed in the 13years war – is not stable – & a persecuted population is bound to retaliate sooner or later.
Also for Syria that has a 75%Sunni pop. & has been ruled by Shia Alawite regime for over 4.5 decades, the news that Assad will be nominating another Alawite will not be taken as good-news, even when Syrians have stood behind Assad in the wake of the war.
As for ‘democracy’, this deal will be last nail to its coffin. Sunnis of Syria may take decades to muster up strength to snatch their democratic rights from those having fresh mandates on their soil.
It is sad that there could not be the option of having a truly free democratic election in Syria or in Iraq, where the people would command their own fate & resources. Yet that seems so impossible in today’s circumstances – in today’s world order – which has proven to be just as brutal, unjust & tyrannical as in any other in history.